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Oscars 2015: Academy Awards Nominations Predictions



OSCARS 2015: THE ACADEMY AWARDS, OR AS WE PREDICT THE PREDICTABLY UNPREDICTABLE
By Archie del Mundo

LAST WEEK, we told you about the Golden Globes being the dress rehearsal for the Oscars. We were serious when we said that. It has always been the case, and in some potent form of logic – rarely it strays off the pattern. How could it not be when the same people, front and back, are the same guns who will vote and decide whether a nominee is DESERVING of the final and most illustrious industry prize. It comes with the speech, Patricia Arquette. At least 15 girls in front of you want to sense fully how much you want it, without having them felt sorry for themselves. Bringing a piece of note and wearing your reading glasses, with all the generic thank-you’s, is quite off-putting. However, Amy Adams may have acted genuinely surprised, but it’s the kind of “oh-my-god-I-hope-I-look-sincere-enough-to-appear-surprised-and-thankful.” The kind of speech that makes a great transference is not just the rousing pieces that seem to appear “rehearsed-unrehearsed.” Academy voters want to be moved all the time by dozens of Kevin Spaceys and George Clooneys. They want to be convinced you really deserve to be elevated and subsequently adored. They also want to know if you are fun to invite at parties. 

The Oscars will not be about the performances anymore after the nominations have been announced. In no doubt, precursor victories and million-dollar FYC ads make things wildly possible even for under-the-radar films and performances to be noticed, but winning is a different set of scorecards. Always take into account the success of Sally Kirkland’s micro-campaigning in 1987. Gena Rowland even admitted to have voted for Kirkland for Best Actress even without actually seeing her film Anna – because WHAT A GREAT AD. 

More than what they choose to acknowledge, AMPAS members seek out socio-cultural platforms, historical significance, and economic sustainability. In the final tally, there is the existence of nonexistent X-factor (Film Threat, 1997) that apparently had delayed Scorsese’s trip to the podium for many years. The X-factor dynamic seems to be what Rowland inadvertently expressed as the product of being sympathetically implicit without being too blatant, and in Margaret Avery’s case, almost preposterous. In the Case of The Academy Vs Tom Cruise, as Ricky Gervais recently alluded, you can’t be the most handsome, over-privileged, and powerful chap – and get an Oscar, too. However, this is not anymore the case with George Clooney (who won for Best Supporting Actor for Syriana), although he may want to consider winning Best Lead Actor first before setting his sight on the US presidency. 

Having computed all the pluses and minuses accumulated from industry precursors, regionals, and in every-man’s top tens – the probability of predicting the Academy Awards 2015 nominees come January 15 is now relatively breezier for published pundits and self-proclaimed experts alike. A great deal of advice for those who are trying to improve the batting average of their pop culture Nostradimity: always reserve one spot for films such as Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Crash, Il Postino, Chariots of Fire, Beasts of the Southern Wild, United 93, and Amour. Best Picture is most often the most important project of the year – technically, it does not have to be better than the other nominee. During the 1940s and 1950s, a film was deemed “important” if it is about the war and running more than 2 hours. Since Hollywood, and the whole Los Angeles County was practically founded by Jewish immigrants, a film about the holocaust always stirs an emotional response and equates a considerable notice. In the age of counter-terrorism, such is the case for films like Argo, The Hurt Locker, United 93, and Zero dark Thirty. However, historical inaccuracies and stirring up a Senate inquiry make one most deserving even left out in the cold (Ben Affleck, not nominated for Best Director; Zero Dark Thirty losing Best Picture), which is why those that managed to win Best Screenplay are practically (unofficially) rescinded. This goes without explaining how one worthy achievement is iced off even a nomination. 

All things considered, here are our predictions for the upcoming Oscars 2015 nomination:

BEST MOTION PICTURE

Whiplash
Selma
The Imitation Game 
Birdman
Boyhood 
The Theory of Everything 
The Grand Budapest Hotel 
Gone Girl
Nightcrawler 
(in case of 10) Foxcatcher 
(for maximum WTF but deserving) Pride 

BEST DIRECTOR

Alejandro Iñarritu (Birdman)
Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
Ava DuVernay (Selma)
Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Damien Chazelle (Whiplash)
(in case of WTF) Angelina Jolie (Unbroken)

BEST ACTOR

Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
Michael Keaton (Birdman)
Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
(or and when the moods are right) Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)

BEST ACTRESS

Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
Amy Adams (Big Eyes)
Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
Jennifer Aniston (Cake)
(in case Jen’s Magic didn’t work) Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 

Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
Edward Norton (Birdman)
J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
Robert Duvall (The Judge)
(charms, crystals, and Mom Barbra) Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice) 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)
Meryl Streep (Into The Woods)
Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)
Emma Stone (Birdman)
(In case, they got tired of Meryl) Tilda Swinton (Snowpiercer)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Dan Gilroy (Nightcrawler)
Alejandro Iñarritu, Armando Bo, Alexander Dinelaris, and Nicolas Giabone (Birdman)
Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
Stephen Beresford (Pride)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

Damien Chazelle (Whiplash)
Graham Moore (The Imitation Game)
Nick Hornby (Wild)
Gillian Flynn (Gone Girl)
Paul Thomas Anderson (Inherent Vice)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Daniel Landin (Under the Skin)
Tat Radcliffe (Pride) 
Emmanuel Lubezki (Birdman)
Hoyte Van Hoytema (Interstellar)
Robert Yeoman (The Grand Budapest Hotel)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Ida (Poland)
Tangerines (Estonia)
Leviathan (Russia)
Force Majeure (Sweden)
Wild Tales (Argentina)
(as always, expect this to be 4 out of 5)

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Dale Bacar
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1 comment:

  1. I hope Bradley Cooper wins, his performance on American Sniper was amazing. Excited to see the Oscars!

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